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Authors: Jorge E. Ramos & Gretta T. Pecl (Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, UTas).
Scientific evidence suggests that the world’s oceans are warming at an accelerated rate due to anthropogenic activities. Waters off the south-east coast of Australia are warming almost four times the global average, caused in part by the strengthening of the East Australian Current. Ocean warming may impact the physiology, morphology, and behaviour of marine organisms that live close to their limits of thermal tolerance. To keep pace with their preferred thermal environments, over 100 marine species have been documented as shifting their geographic distribution polewards along the south-east coast of Australia at an average rate of 29 km/decade. The arrival of range-shifting species into new areas can be positive or negative, depending on species interactions. Impacts of concern include range-shifting sea urchins that can destroy kelp forests, stinging jellyfish and toxic microalgae that are detrimental to human health and have negative economic impacts on tourism, fisheries, and aquaculture.
It is important to develop predictive capacity to identify which species are likely to undertake such range-shifts. Recent studies suggest that populations with high connectivity and genetic diversity, fast growth rates, rapid population turnover, and high reproductive and predatory capacity are likely to better adapt to new environments, establish and prevail at extension zones, and out-compete local species.
Examination of life history characteristics, population dynamics, physiological limits, application of spatial modelling, and monitoring for changes in geographic distribution by citizen-science monitoring programs (e.g. REDMAP), may help scientists, managers and policy makers detect potential range shifting species and their impacts. This will enable us to mitigate threats and identify opportunities (e.g. new fishing target species).
More on this Hot Topic:
– Plain-English factsheet (PDF) –
– Link to peer-reviewed article via Austral Ecology –
If you have recently published an update on this topic, please contact the HT author for your research to be considered for addition to the evidence review.
Supporting Research
Title
Aims
Amundsen PA, Salonen E, Niva T et al. (2012) Invader population speeds up life history during colonization. Biological Invasions 14, 1501–1513. doi:10.1007/s10530-012-0175-3
To compare the population biology and genetics of a colonist and a source populations
Bates AE, Bird TJ, Stuart-Smith RD et al. (2014) Distinguishing geographical range shifts from artefacts of detectability and sampling effort. Diversity and Distributions 21, 13–22. doi:10.1111/ddi.12263
To develop an approach to discern true range shifts from sampling artifacts
Edgar GJ, Stuart-Smith RD (2014) Systematic global assessment of reef fish communities by the Reef Life Survey program. Nature Scientific Data 1, 140007. doi:10.1038/sdata.2014.7
To describe the Reef Life Survey reef fish dataset to assess broad-scale spatial patterns in community structure
Hill KL, Rintoul SR, Coleman R, Ridgway KR (2008) Wind forced low frequency variability of the East Australia Current. Geophysical Research Letters 35, L08602. doi:10.1029/2007gl032912
To demonstrate that the low-frequency temperature and salinity variability observed at the Maria Island station reflects changes in the position and strength of the subtropical gyre in response to changes in South Pacific winds
Johnson CR, Banks SC, Barrett NS et al. (2011) Climate change cascades: Shifts in oceanography, species' ranges and subtidal marine community dynamics in eastern Tasmania. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 400, 17–32. doi:10.1016/j.jembe.2011.02.032
To understand ongoing oceanographic change and the implications of these changes for important ecological systems in eastern Tasmania. To synthesize existing knowledge of change in the physical ocean climate in eastern Tasmania, and concomitant shifts in species' distributions and ecological processes
Last PR, White WT, Gledhill DC et al. (2011) Long-term shifts in abundance and distribution of a temperate fish fauna: a response to climate change and fishing practices. Global Ecology and Biogeography 20, 58–72. doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00575.x
To resolve the agents of change in abundance and distribution by examining major temporal and distributional shifts in the fish fauna and making a tentative attribution of causal factors
Levitus S, Antonov JI, Boyer TP et al. (2012) World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0–2000 m), 1955–2010. Geophysical Research Letters 39, L10603. doi:10.1029/2012gl051106
To provide updated estimates of the change of ocean heat content and the thermosteric component of sea level change of the 0–700 and 0–2000 m layers of the World Ocean for 1955–2010
Madin EMP, Ban NC, Doubleday ZA, Holmes TH, Pecl GT, Smith F (2012) Socio-economic and management implications of range-shifting species in marine systems. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions 22, 137–146. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.008
To summarise the known examples of Australian range-shifting marine species and present a forward looking analysis of observed and potential future socio-economic and managerial implications of climate-induced range shifts in marine taxa
McMahon RF (2002) Evolutionary and physiological adaptations of aquatic invasive animals: r selection versus resistance. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 59, 1235–1244. doi:10.1139/f02-105
To review evidence for increased physiological tolerance in invasive nonindigenous species relative to that of taxonomic ally related native species whose habitats they have invaded
Parmesan C (2006) Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics 37, 637–669. doi:10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100
To review observed responses of wild biological species and systems to recent, antrhopogenic climate change
Pinsky ML, Worm B, Fogarty MJ, Sarmiento JL, Levin SA (2013) Marine taxa track local climate velocities. Science 341, 1239–1242. doi:10.1126/science.1239352
To test if differences in climate velocity (rate and direction that climate shifts across the landscape) can explain observed species shifts
Pitt NR, Poloczanska ES, Hobday AJ (2010) Climate-driven range changes in Tasmanian intertidal fauna. Marine and Freshwater Research 61, 963–970. doi:10.1071/mf09225
To test if the warming waters around Tasmania would influence the distribution of local intertidal taxa, with southward range extensions
Poloczanska ES, Babcock RC, Butler A et al. (2007) Climate change and Australian marine life. Oceanography and Marine Biology 45, 407–478. doi:10.1201/9781420050943
To describe projections of climate change in Australian waters and examine from the literature likely impacts of these changes on Australian marine biodiversity
Poloczanska ES, Brown CJ, Sydeman WJ et al. (2013) Global imprint of climate change on marine life. Nature Climate Change 3, 919–925. doi:10.1038/nclimate1958
To synthesize all available studies of the consistency of marine ecological observations with expectations under climate change
Ramos JE, Pecl GT, Moltschaniwskyj NA, Semmens JM, Souza CA, Strugnell JM (2018) Population genetic signatures of a climate change driven marine range extension. Scientific Reports 8, 9558. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-27351-y
To examine the population connectivity, genetic structure and diversity of a marine range shifting species, Octopus tetricus, throughout its geographic distribution including range extension areas.
Ramos JE, Pecl GT, Moltschaniwskyj NA, Strugnell JM, León RI, Semmens JM (2014) Body size, growth and life span: implications for the polewards range shift of Octopus tetricus in south-eastern Australia. PLOS ONE 9, e103480. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0103480
To examine how body size, growth rate, and life span relate to the capacity of a marine species to undertake a range shift and establish in a new area
Ramos JE, Pecl GT, Semmens JM, Strugnell JM, León RI, Moltschaniwskyj NA (In press) Reproductive capacity of a marine species (Octopus tetricus) within a recent range extension area. Marine and Freshwater Research
To examine how reproductive characteristics relate to the range shift of a marine species and its establishment in extended areas of its geographic distribution
Range Extension Database and Mapping Project, REDMAP (2014) Available at http://www.redmap.org.au
To record presence of marine species out of their common range of distribution
Ridgway KR (2007) Long-term trend and decadal variability of the East Australian Current. Geophysical Research Letters 34, L13613. doi:10.1029/2007GL030393
To examine long-term oceanographic records to determine causes of trends and their connection with the flow of the East Australian Current
Robinson LM, Pecl GT, Gledhill DC et al. (2015). Rapid assessment of an ocean warming hotspot reveals ‘‘high’’ confidence in potential species’ range extensions. Global Environmental Change 31, 28–37. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.12.003
To develop a cost-effective and rapid screening assessment tool that uses monitoring data to classify levels of confidence in potential range extensions for a variety of marine species
Sunday JM, Bates AE, Dulvy NK (2012) Thermal tolerance and the global redistribution of animals. Nature Climate Change 2, 686–690. doi:10.1038/nclimate1539
To test the response in distribution of marine and terrestrial species, based on their thermal tolerance, to climate warming
Sunday JM, Pecl GT, Frusher S et al. (2015) Species traits and climate velocity explain geographic range shifts in an ocean-warming hotspot. Ecology Letters. doi:10.1111/ele.12474
To estimate how species traits interact with the expected rate of range shifts
Pecl GT, Araújo MB, Bell JD, Blanchard J, Bonebrake TC, Chen IC, Clark TD, Colwell RK, Danielsen F, Evengård B, Falconi L, Ferrier S, Frusher S, Garcia RA, Griffis R, Hobday AJ, Janion-Scheepers C, Jarzyna MA, Jennings S, Lenoir J, Linnetved HI, Martin VY, McCormack PC, McDonald J, Mitchell NJ, Mustonen T, Pandolfi JM, Pettorelli N, Popova E, Robinson SA, Scheffers BR, Shaw JD, Sorte CJB, Strugnell JM, Sunday JM, Tuanmu MN, Vergés A, Villanueva C, Wernberg T, Wapstra E, Williams SE. (2017) Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: impacts on ecosystems and human well-being. Science. Vol 355, issue 6332, eaai9214
Reviews evidence of how and why climate-driven species redistribution matters at regional to global scales